The Evils of Collectivism

“Collectivism is a sociopathic mental disorder of tyrants, dictators and freeloaders. It has caused massive human suffering. It is responsible for the deaths of well over 100 million people. It is responsible for unbelievable environmental destruction. It has destroyed progress and innovation at every level. Collectivism creates poverty in finance, spirit and character at every turn. It creates shortages, black markets, unfairness, corruption and discrimination. It causes famine and sickness. It is dishonest, it is evil and it is just plain wrong.” – Jason Hartman

#58 – The Faith Based Rally Continues, by Jason Hartman

The stock market is continuing its rally from market lows early in 2009.  To many free market economists, the stock market is seen as a harbinger of sentiment concerning the future of economic growth.  This has created jubilation on the part of many journalists and investment advisors, based on the belief that current stock market returns are predicting a robust economic recovery.  However, deeper analysis of this rally shows that it is heavy on ‘hopes and dreams’ while unfortunately light on fundamentals.

Analysis of the relationship between the S&P 500 market price and the earnings per share or dividends per share shows a much different picture.  Over the last 15 years, the ratio of prices to dividends reached astronomical levels.  This indicated a shift of market sentiment away from the fundamentals that drove earnings and dividends toward speculation on future appreciation as the primary driver of value in the stock market.  This phenomenon is also evident in the cycles of expansion and contraction in the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 index.

The recent market turmoil has escalated P/E ratios to unseen levels that will require dramatic increases in earnings for the current price levels to be supported by fundamentals.  The ratio of prices to dividends are also still very high relative to the historical average, communicating that market sentiment is still firmly in the camp of valuing the market based on the anticipation of future value appreciation instead of the fundamentals that drive earnings and the dividends that are paid out of earnings.

All of these trends point toward a further perpetuation of value bubbles, market crashes, nominal recoveries that create more bubbles.  Furthermore, these market cycles are likely to increase in severity over shorter and shorter time horizons.  The reason for this is a near complete disconnect between market values and economic fundamentals.  As this fracture continues to widen, it will result in market values fluctuation wildly.

Another major factor in these anticipated fluctuations is the government exercising its monetary authority to finance deficits by expanding the money supply.  (also known as ‘monetizing the debt’)  It is likely that future nominal value contractions will be ‘eased’ by infusions of new money by the government.  This will result in nominal value fluctuations that look moderate, but real value going down precipitously because of the dollar’s progressive weakening, due to expansionary monetary policy.

http://www.CreatingWealthPodcast.com & http://www.JasonHartman.com

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#56 – Re-Inflating the Debt Bubble

Re-Inflating the Debt Bubble

Reading the news has never been the best way to inspire optimism. This phenomenon has never been more true than it is today for financially astute people that are aware of causes and consequences. In a recent press conference, the US President was touting a new blitz of government programs to get the US economy “back on track.” On the surface, this seems like a laudable goal, until you consider what is meant by getting the economy back on the track it was previously traveling.

It is not a secret that the precipitous collapse of the US economy was created by a prolific expansion in debt financed investment and consumption. This helix of credit escalated asset prices upward in a speculative bubble until they were so high new buyers could no longer be found to continue paying the ever increasing prices. As the prices contracted, many people and funds with overleveraged positions found themselves ‘upside down’ when values plunged below the purchase prices. This downward vortex was fed further by people who had purchased home mortgages that they did not have the capacity to afford based on the assumption that their homes would continually increase in value. As prices fell, foreclosures increased, which further depressed prices, which created more foreclosures.

Most people of even an elementary education level intuitively know that this much debt cannot be undertaken without a tremendous level of risk. True economic growth is fueled by increases in the level of productivity for labor output that allows a nation to increase the amount of output with the same amount of input. Misalignments of prices from market manipulations frequently disrupt this natural progression of labor productivity increases with boom and bust cycles. The unfortunate fallout of this phenomenon is that politicians are frequently more interested in creating an artificial ‘boom’ that they can claim credit for than fostering genuine economic growth

For evidence of this phenomenon, one must look no further than the efforts of the current Presidential administration to re-inflate the debt bubble as a means of artificially propping up the economy in absence of a discernable improvement in the underlying fundamentals. After many months of campaigning against traditional populist straw dogs of “Greed” and “Corporate America” the people currently in charge are repeating the exact same actions that perpetuated the last debt bubble.

For example, one of the ‘fixes’ proposed was to increase allowable debt levels so that more people could refinance their homes. Another round of government sponsored programs was to give away taxpayer money to new home buyers and new car buyers. In each of these cases, the government is directly encouraging further indebtedness to finance short-term consumption. The philosophy guiding these actions is a belief that this debt-financed consumption will “get the economy moving” again.

Looking at the total credit outstanding across all sectors as a ratio of Gross Domestic Product shows a startling trend of increasing indebtedness. Even more startling is the fact that the recent economic collapse served as little more than a speed bump in this upward trajectory, and all signs point to the current administration accelerating the debt bubble with ballooning record budget deficits and fiscal policy directed at encouraging debt to stimulate short term consumption.

The intense irony of this situation is that it is a carbon-copy repeat of the behaviors that caused the current financial mess in the first place. Sustained economic growth can only come from production and innovation. These things cannot be produced by government fiat or market manipulations. They must emerge from individual people having the right incentives to create valuable products and services. As long as the government continues to engage in ‘smoke and mirrors’ forms of market manipulations and debt bubble inflation, it is not very likely that the necessary conditions for a market recover will emerge.

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#53 – Fiscally Fit Financial Quiz

Fiscally Fit: A check-up for your financial fitness

1. What happens to home values when the replacement costs increase?

   1. The go up like a rocket

   2. They go down because nobody can afford to build

   3. They are pulled toward the cost of new construction

   4. They don’t change . . . construction costs don’t matter

2. What is happening to the economy now that the debt bubble has burst?

   1. The recovery going to happening, because Ben Bernake said so

   2. The government attempting to re-inflate the debt bubble in order to stimulate short-term demand

   3. It’s just like the great depression, only worse

   4. The recovery has already started . . . the government reporting agencies are just suppressing the information

3. What is happening to real unemployment?

   1. It is going up, contrary the manipulated numbers that are published

   2. Can’t you read? . . . it’s going down because the stimulus package is working

   3. It’s already higher than during the great depression

   4. It’s going to be back below five percent in no time

4. What happens when government spending becomes a bigger portion of total GDP?

   1. It gets the economy back on its feet

   2. It erodes long-term growth by displacing private investment capital

   3. It make people more equal by re-distributing income

   4. It makes the environment better because of government regulation

Answers: 1) c, 2) b, 3) a, 4) b

Explanation of Answers:

What happens to home values when the replacement costs increase?

Over time, home prices naturally converge toward the cost of construction. The reason for this is twofold. First, new housing starts tend to boom when prices are high, creating an increase in supply that generates more competition and usually lowers market prices toward equilibrium. Second, when prices are depressed and market values dip below the cost of construction, new housing starts will drop off precipitously. As an extended period of time passes with no new homes being built it will slowly pull prices up toward equilibrium. Thus, in all cases the cost of construction plus land is the approximate equilibrium point to which home prices naturally converge.

What is happening to the economy now that the debt bubble has burst?

The impact of the debt bubble bursting was a dramatic contraction in the availability of credit. This meant that many people who were previously spending on credit are no longer able to continue spending. In this kind of economic environment, many people begin ‘deleveraging’ or actively reducing their debt burden. However, in this economic cycle the government is attempting to stimulate short term demand with credit based spending, ostensibly re-inflating the debt bubble. The way that they are doing this is with tax credits for new home buyers or rebates for people that trade in old cards to purchase new ones. These programs are all encouraging increased indebtedness in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Unfortunately, sustained economic growth can only come from increases in production and productivity, and none of the government programs is addressing either fundamental factor of economic growth.

What is happening to real unemployment?

The way that government statistics track unemployment is to remove ‘discouraged workers’ from the pool by only tracking people that are actively seeking work. Fundamentally, this means that people who stop looking for work (and are not employed) are removed from the pool for counting the statistics. This means that the total number of jobless people can actually go up, while the unemployment rate goes down like what happened in July’09. Furthermore, the official numbers count people who are under-employed in part time work but would like to work full time as fully employed. It also counts people who work in commissioned sales like Real Estate or Insurance as being employed, even though they may not have earned a commission check for quite some time. When analyzing the strength of the economy, it is important to not only look at the published statistics, but the underlying assumptions.

What happens when government spending becomes a bigger portion of total GDP?

The important to thing to consider when talking about government spending is that the government cannot spend a single dime without taking it away from somebody else first. This comes from direct taxation, borrowing in the credit markets (displacing private capital), and printing money (devaluing the savings and equity of all people who hold dollar-denominated assets). As the government grows larger, it must necessarily displace or destroy private investment and spending to finance its operations. Since government operations are necessarily politically motivated, it naturally follows that the real output of government spending will result in substantially less production and productivity improvement than if that same capital had been deployed though private channels. As the government seizes control over more and more of the economy, it pushes more decisions onto the desk of politicians and neutralizes the market forces that create economic growth.

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#52 – Double Dip Recession

Double Dip Recession

The recent financial news has been abuzz with exhortations over the anticipation of an end to the recent financial calamity. The stock market has already discounted this optimism into its valuation, as current market values represent a multiple of forecasted earnings per share well in excess of historical trends. The conventional wisdom is that the economy will get “back on track” in the next few months and resume its previous trajectory of long term growth. The factor that nobody seems to be considering is the fact that the previous ‘track’ the economy had been traveling down is the express route to collapse that generated this whole financial meltdown in the first place.

It is not a secret that the explosive economic growth experienced during recent years was largely caused by debt financed consumption artificially increasing demand for goods and services. Unfortunately, this debt bubble inflated beyond the capacity of many people and financial institutions to carry. When the bubble eventually burst, it created a cascading devaluation of financial instruments, which triggered forced deleveraging, which further depressed values, which triggered more forced deleveraging.

Now that the government is throwing money away at an unprecedented, breakneck speed there is additional stress on the system since the overspending is being financed with the undertaking of additional debt and monetary expansion by the Federal Reserve. These irresponsible actions will eventually have the impact of raising interest rates, and may push the economy back into recession.

The most likely way that this scenario will unfold is that the Federal Reserve will either contract the money supply in response to inflationary pressure or allow the currency to inflate until investors refuse to purchase bonds at face value and demand higher coupon rates. Thus, the ‘front door’ for interest rate increases is controlled by the Federal Reserve since they can contract the money supply, which will force up short-term interest rates and incentivize long-term bondholders to sell and buy short-term notes with higher yields. The “back door” for interest rate increases occurs when investors lose confidence in the ability of the government to meet its debt obligations without devaluing the currency and refuse to purchase bonds unless they are discounted by the treasury.

These interest rate increases will have two significant impacts on the economy. The first is in relation to long-term interest rates, which serve as the basis for fixed rate mortgages. When mortgage rates are forced up in conjunction with long-term bonds, it will immediately slow whatever housing recovery may be under way as it increases the cost of borrowing to purchasers. This will have the net effect of decreasing the amount of house that can be purchased per dollar of monthly payment. The impact of this phenomenon will be a downward shift in the range of home prices that people can afford, which will ultimately stall the housing recovery.

When these effects eventually spill over to short term rate increases when the Federal Reserve eventually begins a campaign to fight inflation, the impact will travel further downstream in the economy. The reason for this downstream impact is the fact that short term interest rates influenced by the Federal Reserve are the basis for revolving credit account and lines of credit that many consumers have been using to finance their consumption spending. When the short term interest rates increase, it will initiate an upward shift in the amount of interest owed on consumer debt and will also increase the required payments. This will have the net effect of reducing the amount of income available for consumption spending.

As these two effects compound on top of one another, they create a very real possibility of a ‘double dip’ recession that continues downward after a brief period of stabilization. The ultimate reason for this phenomenon is a continued campaign of market manipulation by the government to ‘stimulate’ the economy in absence of market fundamentals that are supportive of sustained long term growth. Unfortunately, this boom-bust cycle will continue indefinitely until the focus eventually returns to creating the necessary market fundamental for long term growth instead of sponsoring government programs to stimulate demand with borrowed money, but make no changes in the incentives that guide investment decisions.

As astute investors, it is important to be wary of market sentiment that amounts to ‘wishful thinking’ for an economic recovery in the absence of supporting fundamentals. Recognizing these boom-bust trends and the propensity for government entities to manipulate the financial markets is a key tool for investors that are looking to protect their wealth and prosperity. At the Financial Freedom Report, we advocate investment in real assets that are secured by fixed-rate debt and rented out to tenants as the optimal strategy for fighting this campaign of market manipulation by the government.

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#51 – Creating Wealth Show Stars

Talking with the Stars . . . Jason’s marquee guests on the Creating Wealth Show

In the last few months, Jason has had some big name guests on the Creating Wealth Show. Some of Jason’s recent guests of note are Pat Buchannan, Robert Kiyosaki, and Catherine Austin Fitts.

Pat Buchannan is well known in the United States as an outspoken conservative voice in favor of limited government, and less globalization. In his Jason’s interview with Pat, they discussed the prospect for large amounts of inflation in the near future. Pat commented that the US debt would be floated away on a sea of inflation. At the Financial Freedom Report, we couldn’t agree more with this sentiment, and advocate that investors defend their financial wellbeing with income producing assets that are financed with fixed-rate debt.

Robert Kiyosaki is the author of the noted “Rich Dad” series of books, games, and videos. In his interview with Jason, he discussed the importance of financial education in achieving success. They also discussed the importance of passive income to financial success, and the impact of dynamic investment strategies. Robert rightly pointed out that it is possible to make money in any kind of investment, and also possible to lose your shirt in any kind of investment. The key is always to become educated. At the Financial Freedom Report, we couldn’t agree more with this sentiment.

Catherine Austin Fitts is the founder of the Solari report, and is a renowned thinker in the financial world. She advocates for a decoupling from the centralized banking model that channels influence toward the dominant industry players and government. Put another way, she is an advocate of free markets but the current system is nothing even remotely resembling a free market. We advocate direct ownership of investment property as a way to help circumvent the systemic bias toward institutional players.

The Creating Wealth show will continue to seek cutting-edge thinkers that help provide insight into investing and the economy. We firmly believe in the importance of becoming educated, and the best source of education is frequently to seek advice from experts. This does not necessarily mean that we agree with everything that all of our guests say . . . what it means is that we believe there is always something that can be learned.

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#40 – The Bottom Line: Current Investment Outlook

The Bottom Line: Current Investment Outlook

As with all difficult times, it can be very hard to see glimmers of light in the midst of economic freefall. With the current trajectory of job losses, economic contraction, and government intervention into the economy, there are many people who are on the verge of giving up hope for a brighter future. The most important point to consider in this situation is that national policy is not within the circle of influence for most individuals. What this ultimately means is that we must focus our energy on the things that we can do within the political environment we live in.

Thus, our attention must shift away from the speed in which the economy is being nationalized and move toward the ways we can position ourselves to avoid personal financial disaster from said circumstances. We must proactively direct our focus off of the way financial markets are being manipulated, and shift in the direction of learning how we can structure our portfolio to avoid the market manipulation entirely.

Make no mistake that there are very difficult times ahead. The generations that were swept to wealth on the bull market of the last 25 years will soon realize that the fundamentals driving previous market rallies are no longer present. The notion of comfortable retirement may extend out of reach for ordinary workers who follow the dogma of savings and investment in the stock market, as returns disappoint and consumer prices skyrocket from government monetary policy.

As proactive, astute investors, it is the responsibility of all of us to structure our finances in such a way that our future is not dependent on the actions of a political movement. At the Financial Freedom Report, we recommend accomplishing this goal through investment in rental real estate located in sensible markets, financed by high- quality, long-term debt. By maintaining a keen focus on the actions that are within our sphere of influence, each of us can create a financial future that remains bright in the midst of chaos and uncertainty in the marketplace.

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#38 – The Creating Wealth Show #105

The Creating Wealth Show #105:

Propelling investment success using econometrics and

competitive analytics

In the one hundred and fifth episode of Jason’s extremely popular Creating Wealth show, he interviews David Savlowitz, the head of Competitive Analytics (CA), a niche full-service market intelligence firm. In this show, David explains the way that his firm uses a multiplicity of data to generate more robust information for their clients than can be obtained by the simplistic scorecards that are employed by most of the financial media. The methods that CA employs analyze supply and demand by using statistics, econometrics, predictive modeling, comprehensive research, and applied mathematics.

In this show, Jason talks with David about the ways that Competitive Analytics uses comprehensive data analysis to drive prediction models for their clients. One of the methods that they frequently employ is an economic composite score that is based on a multiplicity of weighted indicators. When applying this methodology to the general economy, David’s model is predicting the bottom of the economic cycle in Q4, 2009 with a return to equilibrium by Q4, 2011. Furthermore, David’s models are forecasting a U-shaped recovery that will have an extended trough. This stands in sharp contrast to previous V-shaped recoveries that experienced an immediate “bounce back” from the market lows. The reason for this extended trough is because a significant adjustment needs to be made in order to equalize the debt-financed over-consumption that fueled the recent asset bubbles.

The unique part of David’s methodology is the fact that his team uses a very wide variety of input variables in an attempt to capture future items that may become big swing factors. He rightly understands the implicit danger that can be present within quantitative economics for people that do not fully understand the analysis. This danger stems from the fact that econometric analysis uses trends in the past to predict the future, and thus cannot anticipate the impact of events that have never happened before. The importance of this insight comes from the fact that rare events like September 11th, 2001, the Russian Financial Crisis, and the collapse of credit default swaps were never incorporated into any prediction models because they had never happened before.

Each of these events had an unfathomable impact on the marketplace that left people who were blindly following technical trends of the past absorbing unbelievable losses (or pushing those losses onto the taxpayer in the form of a government bailout). As a point of reference; the hedge fund “Long Term Capital Management” was the brainchild of Robert Merton and Myron Scholes. It made heavy use of econometrics to undertake highly leveraged arbitrage trades in the bond market, but nearly collapsed the financial markets after the Russian Financial Crisis in September of 1998. This became the first iteration of a “too big to fail” argument, and is being used as the precedent for the government bailouts of financial institutions that are currently being pushed on the marketplace.

This is not to say that quantitative analysis and econometrics are implicitly dangerous. It is simply to say that it is a tool . . . a very powerful tool that needs to be understood before it is used. When applied by knowledgeable professionals, it can generate valuable insights. When given over to pseudo-intellectual or short-sighted agents, it can become a tool of mass financial destruction as the algorithms become an item of blind faith that drives insane investment decisions. As with all tools, the result depends largely on how it is used. Thankfully, David keeps the scope and limits of his analytics in perspective. A strong dose of this perspective is highly advised for anybody that seeks to incorporate econometric analysis into investment decisions.

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#36 – Patrolling the Plastic / Non-Dollar Based Assets, Jason Hartman

Patrolling the Plastic: Keeping Track of the Consumer Credit Market (From the Chart Store Weekly Chart Blog for the week ending July 10, 2009)

Analysis of the total consumer credit outstanding shows that the last 10 years, the total consumer debt outstanding as a percentage of disposable personal income has rounded the hump from its all-time high, and is retreating downward. The recent credit market disruption has left many people deleveraging their debt positions, and is pushing this index down further. Unfortunately, the average amount of consumer credit outstanding is still very high relative to the average of 17.5% from 1959 to 1994. Much of the economic expansion in the late 1990s and early twenty-first century was based on debt-financed consumption.

The resultant debt bubble has compromised the ability of many families to continue with their prior spending habits. In practical terms, this means that a prolonged period of adjustment is very likely as consumers slowly move toward a sustainable equilibrium of credit that is nearer to the historical average. This period of adjustment is very likely to result in a downward shift in spending patterns, as well as the observed level of prosperity for the average consumer. Prudent investors should position their portfolios so that they control assets like entry-level rental housing that will be in demand by people who are adapting to the reality of living more modestly.

Non-Dollar-Based Assets Will Rock Your World (From the JasonHartman.com blog)

We’ve been talking a bit lately about how, in our humble opinion, the dollar is poised for a headfirst plummet off a very high cliff. When it does, get ready for the cloud of dust slowly rising up into the sky, just like in the Roadrunner cartoon when Wile E. Coyote makes yet another serious error in judgment.

It doesn’t take much pondering to arrive at the conclusion that a good place to be when the currency crashes is – drum roll, please – OUT of that currency. You need hard, tangible assets. Like commodities? Yes, but probably not what you think. Running out to buy gold and silver is better than Wall Street stocks and bonds, but you can still do much, much better if you turn to income property investing.

After all, what is a structure on land besides a collection of basic commodities like copper, wood, brick, etc? We call it Packaged Commodity Investing™, and this is one (perhaps the only way) to survive the coming fiat currency implosion with your wealth intact. Can you imagine actually being able to create wealth while others around you, especially those who stayed in stocks, are being turned into paupers overnight?

People will still need a place to sleep at night and you will own the pillows. This is how to position yourself to become wealthy in the future. Own something of real value, like real estate. Companies come and go with frightening regularity off the stock market indices. Terra firma beneath your feet? It’s probably going to stay.

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#35 – Fiscally Fit Quiz, Jason Hartman

Fiscally Fit: A Check-Up for Your Financial Fitness

1. What is the best way to avoid future market bubbles?

a. Gold . . . lots and lots of gold.

b. A survival bunker isolated on 30 acres in the woods, surrounded by barbed wire.

c. By directly controlling universally needed assets.

d. By only investing with the “good” fund manager.

2. How does big government relate to big business?

a. Government works for us, and will stop those corporate pigs from cheating the little guy.

b. Government regulations shield big businesses from competition by increasing barriers to entry for new competitors.

c. Big Business has no influence on government now that the Republicans are out of power.

d. It doesn’t matter because all of the jobs in America are being outsourced to China.

3. What causes sustained price inflation?

a. Increases in demand from a hot economy pulling up prices.

b. Increases in the money and credit supply creating more dollars chasing fewer goods.

c. Big Oil, OPEC, and Corporate America.

d. Evil HMOs increasing the cost of health care.

4. What is the principal risk of econometric technical analysis?

a. There is no risk if you know what you’re doing.

b. The risk that your friends and relatives will become jealous of your success.

c. The risk of no government assistance if you are not associated with Goldman Sachs.

d. The risk of excessive reliance on quantitative models that do not have the ability to predict highly disruptive events that have never happened before.

Answers: 1) c, 2) b, 3) b, 4) d

Explanation of Answers

1) What is the best way to avoid future market bubbles?

Market bubbles result from large numbers of people flooding an investment simultaneously based on speculation that the values will continue to climb, even in the absence of supporting fundamentals. It is pleasing to assume that one can find a “good” fund manager who will anticipate these bubbles and avoid them, but the numbers clearly show that outperforming the market on a sustained basis is extremely rare, and that those who do so may only be “coin flippers” who happened to guess correctly over an extended period of time.

Controlling universally-needed assets such as rental housing helps individuals to avoid bubbles by decoupling from financial markets with cash-producing physical assets. Gold represents an inflation-stable medium of exchange (i.e., a constant value currency), but it does not produce regular cash flow, and is therefore dependent on the whim of speculators for its market price. Finally, survivalist isolation may be attractive to some people, but is not the first choice for most investors. Thus, it becomes necessary to find ways for avoiding market bubbles without totally exiting from society.

2) How does big government relate to big business?

Government regulations impact the cost of operation for business entities. As the government increases regulations, it makes things increasingly difficult for new businesses to grow, thus shielding large business entities from competition. The circle closes when the business entities spend on lobbying politicians for legislation that further protects them from competition. In this way, big business and big government become two sides of the same coin, standing in the way of innovation and growth.

3) What causes sustained price inflation?

Changes in commodity prices can create temporary spikes and troughs, but the way that overall market prices establish equilibrium depends on the level of output, the amount of money in the economy, and the velocity with which that money circulates. A spike in the price of one commodity cannot move prices in the entire marketplace unless that price spike significantly contracts production. The only way that prices can increase in a sustained manner is for the government to continually expand the amount of money in circulation at a rate greater than the productivity improvement of capital and labor.

4) What is the principal risk of econometric technical analysis?

Technical analysis can be a very powerful tool, but it lacks the ability to predict future rare events that have never happened before. The reason for this is because econometric algorithms are based on market movements in past years. These models frequently do a fantastic job of modeling normal market gyrations, but cannot incorporate the impact of events that have never happened before. Because of this, over-reliance on technical analysis leaves investors susceptible to the impact of rare events that cause massive market disruptions.

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