Category: Interest Rates
March 29, 2010 ·
The stock market is continuing its rally from market lows early in 2009. To many free market economists, the stock market is seen as a harbinger of sentiment concerning the future of economic growth. This has created jubilation on the part of many journalists and investment advisors, based on the belief that current stock market returns are predicting a robust economic recovery. However, deeper analysis of this rally shows that it is heavy on ‘hopes and dreams’ while unfortunately light on fundamentals.
Analysis of the relationship between the S&P 500 market price and the earnings per share or dividends per share shows a much different picture. Over the last 15 years, the ratio of prices to dividends reached astronomical levels. This indicated a shift of market sentiment away from the fundamentals that drove earnings and dividends toward speculation on future appreciation as the primary driver of value in the stock market. This phenomenon is also evident in the cycles of expansion and contraction in the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 index.
The recent market turmoil has escalated P/E ratios to unseen levels that will require dramatic increases in earnings for the current price levels to be supported by fundamentals. The ratio of prices to dividends are also still very high relative to the historical average, communicating that market sentiment is still firmly in the camp of valuing the market based on the anticipation of future value appreciation instead of the fundamentals that drive earnings and the dividends that are paid out of earnings.
All of these trends point toward a further perpetuation of value bubbles, market crashes, nominal recoveries that create more bubbles. Furthermore, these market cycles are likely to increase in severity over shorter and shorter time horizons. The reason for this is a near complete disconnect between market values and economic fundamentals. As this fracture continues to widen, it will result in market values fluctuation wildly.
Another major factor in these anticipated fluctuations is the government exercising its monetary authority to finance deficits by expanding the money supply. (also known as ‘monetizing the debt’) It is likely that future nominal value contractions will be ‘eased’ by infusions of new money by the government. This will result in nominal value fluctuations that look moderate, but real value going down precipitously because of the dollar’s progressive weakening, due to expansionary monetary policy.
http://www.CreatingWealthPodcast.com & http://www.JasonHartman.com
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January 4, 2010 ·
Re-Inflating the Debt Bubble
Reading the news has never been the best way to inspire optimism. This phenomenon has never been more true than it is today for financially astute people that are aware of causes and consequences. In a recent press conference, the US President was touting a new blitz of government programs to get the US economy “back on track.” On the surface, this seems like a laudable goal, until you consider what is meant by getting the economy back on the track it was previously traveling.
It is not a secret that the precipitous collapse of the US economy was created by a prolific expansion in debt financed investment and consumption. This helix of credit escalated asset prices upward in a speculative bubble until they were so high new buyers could no longer be found to continue paying the ever increasing prices. As the prices contracted, many people and funds with overleveraged positions found themselves ‘upside down’ when values plunged below the purchase prices. This downward vortex was fed further by people who had purchased home mortgages that they did not have the capacity to afford based on the assumption that their homes would continually increase in value. As prices fell, foreclosures increased, which further depressed prices, which created more foreclosures.
Most people of even an elementary education level intuitively know that this much debt cannot be undertaken without a tremendous level of risk. True economic growth is fueled by increases in the level of productivity for labor output that allows a nation to increase the amount of output with the same amount of input. Misalignments of prices from market manipulations frequently disrupt this natural progression of labor productivity increases with boom and bust cycles. The unfortunate fallout of this phenomenon is that politicians are frequently more interested in creating an artificial ‘boom’ that they can claim credit for than fostering genuine economic growth
For evidence of this phenomenon, one must look no further than the efforts of the current Presidential administration to re-inflate the debt bubble as a means of artificially propping up the economy in absence of a discernable improvement in the underlying fundamentals. After many months of campaigning against traditional populist straw dogs of “Greed” and “Corporate America” the people currently in charge are repeating the exact same actions that perpetuated the last debt bubble.
For example, one of the ‘fixes’ proposed was to increase allowable debt levels so that more people could refinance their homes. Another round of government sponsored programs was to give away taxpayer money to new home buyers and new car buyers. In each of these cases, the government is directly encouraging further indebtedness to finance short-term consumption. The philosophy guiding these actions is a belief that this debt-financed consumption will “get the economy moving” again.
Looking at the total credit outstanding across all sectors as a ratio of Gross Domestic Product shows a startling trend of increasing indebtedness. Even more startling is the fact that the recent economic collapse served as little more than a speed bump in this upward trajectory, and all signs point to the current administration accelerating the debt bubble with ballooning record budget deficits and fiscal policy directed at encouraging debt to stimulate short term consumption.
The intense irony of this situation is that it is a carbon-copy repeat of the behaviors that caused the current financial mess in the first place. Sustained economic growth can only come from production and innovation. These things cannot be produced by government fiat or market manipulations. They must emerge from individual people having the right incentives to create valuable products and services. As long as the government continues to engage in ‘smoke and mirrors’ forms of market manipulations and debt bubble inflation, it is not very likely that the necessary conditions for a market recover will emerge.
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December 21, 2009 ·
Double Dip Recession
The recent financial news has been abuzz with exhortations over the anticipation of an end to the recent financial calamity. The stock market has already discounted this optimism into its valuation, as current market values represent a multiple of forecasted earnings per share well in excess of historical trends. The conventional wisdom is that the economy will get “back on track” in the next few months and resume its previous trajectory of long term growth. The factor that nobody seems to be considering is the fact that the previous ‘track’ the economy had been traveling down is the express route to collapse that generated this whole financial meltdown in the first place.
It is not a secret that the explosive economic growth experienced during recent years was largely caused by debt financed consumption artificially increasing demand for goods and services. Unfortunately, this debt bubble inflated beyond the capacity of many people and financial institutions to carry. When the bubble eventually burst, it created a cascading devaluation of financial instruments, which triggered forced deleveraging, which further depressed values, which triggered more forced deleveraging.
Now that the government is throwing money away at an unprecedented, breakneck speed there is additional stress on the system since the overspending is being financed with the undertaking of additional debt and monetary expansion by the Federal Reserve. These irresponsible actions will eventually have the impact of raising interest rates, and may push the economy back into recession.
The most likely way that this scenario will unfold is that the Federal Reserve will either contract the money supply in response to inflationary pressure or allow the currency to inflate until investors refuse to purchase bonds at face value and demand higher coupon rates. Thus, the ‘front door’ for interest rate increases is controlled by the Federal Reserve since they can contract the money supply, which will force up short-term interest rates and incentivize long-term bondholders to sell and buy short-term notes with higher yields. The “back door” for interest rate increases occurs when investors lose confidence in the ability of the government to meet its debt obligations without devaluing the currency and refuse to purchase bonds unless they are discounted by the treasury.
These interest rate increases will have two significant impacts on the economy. The first is in relation to long-term interest rates, which serve as the basis for fixed rate mortgages. When mortgage rates are forced up in conjunction with long-term bonds, it will immediately slow whatever housing recovery may be under way as it increases the cost of borrowing to purchasers. This will have the net effect of decreasing the amount of house that can be purchased per dollar of monthly payment. The impact of this phenomenon will be a downward shift in the range of home prices that people can afford, which will ultimately stall the housing recovery.
When these effects eventually spill over to short term rate increases when the Federal Reserve eventually begins a campaign to fight inflation, the impact will travel further downstream in the economy. The reason for this downstream impact is the fact that short term interest rates influenced by the Federal Reserve are the basis for revolving credit account and lines of credit that many consumers have been using to finance their consumption spending. When the short term interest rates increase, it will initiate an upward shift in the amount of interest owed on consumer debt and will also increase the required payments. This will have the net effect of reducing the amount of income available for consumption spending.
As these two effects compound on top of one another, they create a very real possibility of a ‘double dip’ recession that continues downward after a brief period of stabilization. The ultimate reason for this phenomenon is a continued campaign of market manipulation by the government to ‘stimulate’ the economy in absence of market fundamentals that are supportive of sustained long term growth. Unfortunately, this boom-bust cycle will continue indefinitely until the focus eventually returns to creating the necessary market fundamental for long term growth instead of sponsoring government programs to stimulate demand with borrowed money, but make no changes in the incentives that guide investment decisions.
As astute investors, it is important to be wary of market sentiment that amounts to ‘wishful thinking’ for an economic recovery in the absence of supporting fundamentals. Recognizing these boom-bust trends and the propensity for government entities to manipulate the financial markets is a key tool for investors that are looking to protect their wealth and prosperity. At the Financial Freedom Report, we advocate investment in real assets that are secured by fixed-rate debt and rented out to tenants as the optimal strategy for fighting this campaign of market manipulation by the government.
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December 18, 2009 ·
Talking with the Stars . . . Jason’s marquee guests on the Creating Wealth Show
In the last few months, Jason has had some big name guests on the Creating Wealth Show. Some of Jason’s recent guests of note are Pat Buchannan, Robert Kiyosaki, and Catherine Austin Fitts.
Pat Buchannan is well known in the United States as an outspoken conservative voice in favor of limited government, and less globalization. In his Jason’s interview with Pat, they discussed the prospect for large amounts of inflation in the near future. Pat commented that the US debt would be floated away on a sea of inflation. At the Financial Freedom Report, we couldn’t agree more with this sentiment, and advocate that investors defend their financial wellbeing with income producing assets that are financed with fixed-rate debt.
Robert Kiyosaki is the author of the noted “Rich Dad” series of books, games, and videos. In his interview with Jason, he discussed the importance of financial education in achieving success. They also discussed the importance of passive income to financial success, and the impact of dynamic investment strategies. Robert rightly pointed out that it is possible to make money in any kind of investment, and also possible to lose your shirt in any kind of investment. The key is always to become educated. At the Financial Freedom Report, we couldn’t agree more with this sentiment.
Catherine Austin Fitts is the founder of the Solari report, and is a renowned thinker in the financial world. She advocates for a decoupling from the centralized banking model that channels influence toward the dominant industry players and government. Put another way, she is an advocate of free markets but the current system is nothing even remotely resembling a free market. We advocate direct ownership of investment property as a way to help circumvent the systemic bias toward institutional players.
The Creating Wealth show will continue to seek cutting-edge thinkers that help provide insight into investing and the economy. We firmly believe in the importance of becoming educated, and the best source of education is frequently to seek advice from experts. This does not necessarily mean that we agree with everything that all of our guests say . . . what it means is that we believe there is always something that can be learned.
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December 16, 2009 ·
Economic deliberation with Britain’s financial author and Journalist of the Year – Gillian Tett.
Jason Hartman’s Creating wealth show has had a wide variety of notable guests over the last few months. One of Jason’s recent guests was Gillian Tett, a British journalist, whose recent book Fool’s Gold confronts the current banking and financial crisis. In March 2009, Dr. Tett was named the Journalist of the year at the British Press Awards. During her interview with Jason, she spoke at length about the systemic problems of the current system, and potential solutions.
The principal problem inherent in the current banking system is that free market forces are not allowed to prevail, as demonstrated by the government efforts to bail out failing banks. The problem created by this system is that when financial institutions are protected from failure by the government, it incentivizes them to take extremely large business risks since their upside is vast, and their downside is covered by the government. In response to this upside-down set of incentives, many have called for increased regulation of banks. One of the difficulties discussed was the fact that some of the problems that precipitated the credit collapse were the direct result of regulations imposed on the banks by public authorities.
Ultimately, the principal source of the problems for financial institutions is the fallacious notion that risk can be eliminated. By perpetually shifting risks onto counterparties, the financial world devolves into a large game of ‘hot potato’ where everybody tries to toss the hot potato to somebody else before the timer expires and the ticking bomb explodes. An example of this phenomenon is the practice of securitizing mortgage products into collateralized debt obligations. As these products were combined with one another, it became more and more difficult to ascertain the risk profile of a given security. When the credit crisis emerged, these became ‘hot potato’s’ as investors tried to offload the securities onto one another before the values collapsed.
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September 2, 2009 ·
In this video from http://JasonHartman.com, you will learn how properties investment can actually help you get paid to borrow money. http://CreatingWealthPodcast.com
The cacophony of advice about where to put your money coming at you from all sides can sometimes be deafening. We know that. That’s why we try to be the Joe Friday of investing. Remember the character from Dragnet? ‘Just the facts, ma’am.’
At Platinum Properties, we’re big on facts and when it comes to investing, the facts tell us there is no better place to be than real estate. One of the multitude of reasons we believe this relates to the title of this entry. When you buy a piece of income property, taking out a mortgage in the process, you actually DO get paid to borrow money. At least, that has been the case historically and there seems to be no reason for it to change.
The reason we say you get paid to borrow rests in the reality of inflation, pure and simple. In inflationary times, your best shield against the declining value of the dollar is high-quality, long-term, investment-grade, fixed-rate debt tied to a piece of rental property.
If you muddled your way through that last convoluted, hyphenated sentence, the payoff is this simple statement – the right kind of debt is good. Here’s why and how it works. Let’s assume a dollar was worth a dollar and you bought a house in 1972. Over the next 30 years, continuing inflation driven by near-imbecilic government economic policy drove the value of a dollar down to $0.24 when compared to the 1972 version. It’s all about purchasing power. By taking out a loan that doesn’t come due for those 30 years, you have effectively saved yourself money by paying off the note in cheaper dollars than what you borrowed with.
You just got paid to borrow money, bubs.
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August 31, 2009 ·
In this video from http://JasonHartman.com, we will look at the “calm before the financial storm”. Times are coming when interest rates will go up, and getting mortgages will become harder. Invest now. http://CreatingWealthPodcast.com
To those who have learned how to read the economic trends, it has been painfully obvious for quite some time that significant inflation is on the horizon. Platinum Properties Investor Network has long supported a strategy of fighting inflation through rental real estate that is financed with fixed-rate debt. The advantage of this strategy is that the debt payments will stay the same throughout the inflationary period as prices are pushed higher. While this is happening, the rents paid by the tenants will be consistently increasing as the scourge of inflation is eroding the value of the dollars that are being used to repay the mortgage.
All of the people who have read Jason’s blogs or listened to his Creating Wealth show for a significant period of time are well acquainted with this phenomenon. The piece that is now important to internalize is the fact that this ‘door of opportunity’ will close at some point in the near future. The reason for this is because of the chain reaction that the inevitable inflation will unleash.
Once the impact of inflation begins to unfold, it will result in more investors selling bonds to avoid seeing their wealth destroyed. This will place upward pressure on bond yields as investors will no longer be willing to accept rock-bottom interest rates for government treasuries. As the treasury yields are pushed up higher and higher, there will be a ripple effect to mortgages that are indexed to these treasury notes. This increase in mortgage interest will increase the ‘effective’ price of real estate since the same monthly payment will not buy as much house as in previous years. As this stall in purchasing power ripples through the market, it will place downward pressure on prices and appreciation. At this point, buying in to the real estate market will become a much more tenuous matter since interest rates will be higher, creating increased mortgage payments and lower cash flow to owners. During this time, the investors who locked down low fixed rate mortgages will be watching their profits expand while their costs stay flat.
The bottom line is that this tremendous opportunity will not persist forever. Once the rocks begin to fall, it is likely that the avalanche will quickly follow. Prudent investors should seek to be ahead of the masses, and lock down their investments while rates are still low, prices are still depressed, and opportunities are still plentiful.
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